Ukraine War: Analysis - Russian Forces 'Withdrawing' from Some Areas
Ukraine's armed forces have said that some Russian troops were seen "withdrawing" from the Kyiv region to Belarus.
Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell has more on the situation on the ground.
Several major factors (IMO) will determine how the Ukraine story ends. First, there is a massive amount of support from many countries being provided to Ukraine, in many forms including weapons, food, money, and even foreigners willing to fight. Second, the Ukrainians have shown exceptionally strong leadership and courage. The country has been "under siege" by Putin for years- it needs to stop and now is the time. Third, most of the world is uniting against Russia with crippling sanctions, e.g., and these will create serious economic damage = even more pressure on Putin to end the war and hopefully result in his disappearance and replacement. The democracies of the world understand what is at stake- Ukraine needs to be the end of Putin's fascist-like aggression, once and for all.
Russian ability to wage war in eight years is largely dependent on the flow of money into Russia… with Germany pumping so many € into Putin’s coffers for gas, and no doubt China and India more than willing to purchase fuels from Russia the outlook is a long, protracted conflict even if lines are drawn on the Ukrainian map over the coming weeks or months
Russian armament factories have already shut down production because they can't get parts due to sanctions. They cannot replace the tanks they have lost and they've lost almost half their invasion force. Within six months all Russian aircraft will be grounded sue to a lack of certified parts. The Russian economy is going into freefall, it will not be able to afford the levels of military expenditure it has in the past and yet it will still have to pay for the huge Soviet stockpiles or rusting tanks, its bloated navy and ultra-expensive atomics.
Meanwhile, arms and money will flood into Ukraine after the war is over. Their experienced and motivated military will be given the best military equipment, the best training, the best everything. They will retain a huge army of experienced personnel. This soviet stuff will soon be replaced.
In another eight years, Russia will pose no conventional threat to Ukraine and will be utterly unable to resist its military.
